估算亚朵生活控股有限公司（纳斯达克股票代码：ATAT）的内在价值
KeyInsights
InthisarticlewearegoingtoestimatetheintrinsicvalueofAtourLifestyleHoldingsLimited(NASDAQ:ATAT)bytakingtheforecastfuturecashflowsofthecompanyanddiscountingthembacktotoday'svalue.ThiswillbedoneusingtheDiscountedCashFlow(DCF)model.Believeitornot,it'snottoodifficulttofollow,asyou'llseefromourexample!
Wewouldcautionthattherearemanywaysofvaluingacompanyand,liketheDCF,eachtechniquehasadvantagesanddisadvantagesincertainscenarios.Forthosewhoarekeenlearnersofequityanalysis,theSimplyWallStanalysismodelheremaybesomethingofinteresttoyou.
CheckoutourlatestanalysisforAtourLifestyleHoldings
TheMethod
Weusewhatisknownasa2-stagemodel,whichsimplymeanswehavetwodifferentperiodsofgrowthratesforthecompany'scashflows.Generallythefirststageishighergrowth,andthesecondstageisalowergrowthphase.Tostartoffwith,weneedtoestimatethenexttenyearsofcashflows.Wherepossibleweuseanalystestimates,butwhenthesearen'tavailableweextrapolatethepreviousfreecashflow(FCF)fromthelastestimateorreportedvalue.Weassumecompanieswithshrinkingfreecashflowwillslowtheirrateofshrinkage,andthatcompanieswithgrowingfreecashflowwillseetheirgrowthrateslow,overthisperiod.Wedothistoreflectthatgrowthtendstoslowmoreintheearlyyearsthanitdoesinlateryears.
Generallyweassumethatadollartodayismorevaluablethanadollarinthefuture,sowediscountthevalueofthesefuturecashflowstotheirestimatedvalueintoday'sdollars:
10-yearfreecashflow(FCF)estimate
2024202520262027202820292030203120322033LeveredFCF(CN¥,Millions)CN¥1.52bCN¥1.22bCN¥1.21bCN¥1.21bCN¥1.21bCN¥1.23bCN¥1.24bCN¥1.26bCN¥1.29bCN¥1.31bGrowthRateEstimateSourceAnalystx2Analystx1Est@-1.07%Est@-0.08%Est@0.61%Est@1.09%Est@1.43%Est@1.67%Est@1.83%Est@1.95%PresentValue(CN¥,Millions)Discounted@9.2%CN¥1.4kCN¥1.0kCN¥927CN¥848CN¥782CN¥724CN¥672CN¥626CN¥584CN¥545("Est"=FCFgrowthrateestimatedbySimplyWallSt)
PresentValueof10-yearCashFlow(PVCF)=CN¥8.1b
Aftercalculatingthepresentvalueoffuturecashflowsintheinitial10-yearperiod,weneedtocalculatetheTerminalValue,whichaccountsforallfuturecashflowsbeyondthefirststage.Foranumberofreasonsaveryconservativegrowthrateisusedthatcannotexceedthatofacountry'sGDPgrowth.Inthiscasewehaveusedthe5-yearaverageofthe10-yeargovernmentbondyield(2.2%)toestimatefuturegrowth.Inthesamewayaswiththe10-year'growth'period,wediscountfuturecashflowstotoday'svalue,usingacostofequityof9.2%.
TerminalValue(TV)=FCF2033×(1+g)÷(r–g)=CN¥1.3b×(1+2.2%)÷(9.2%–2.2%)=CN¥19b
PresentValueofTerminalValue(PVTV)=TV/(1+r)10=CN¥19b÷(1+9.2%)10=CN¥8.0b
Thetotalvalue,orequityvalue,isthenthesumofthepresentvalueofthefuturecashflows,whichinthiscaseisCN¥16b.Togettheintrinsicvaluepershare,wedividethisbythetotalnumberofsharesoutstanding.ComparedtothecurrentsharepriceofUS$17.1,thecompanyappearsaroundfairvalueatthetimeofwriting.Rememberthough,thatthisisjustanapproximatevaluation,andlikeanycomplexformula-garbagein,garbageout.
NasdaqGS:ATATDiscountedCashFlowJanuary23rd2024
TheAssumptions
Wewouldpointoutthatthemostimportantinputstoadiscountedcashflowarethediscountrateandofcoursetheactualcashflows.Partofinvestingiscomingupwithyourownevaluationofacompany'sfutureperformance,sotrythecalculationyourselfandcheckyourownassumptions.TheDCFalsodoesnotconsiderthepossiblecyclicalityofanindustry,oracompany'sfuturecapitalrequirements,soitdoesnotgiveafullpictureofacompany'spotentialperformance.GiventhatwearelookingatAtourLifestyleHoldingsaspotentialshareholders,thecostofequityisusedasthediscountrate,ratherthanthecostofcapital(orweightedaveragecostofcapital,WACC)whichaccountsfordebt.Inthiscalculationwe'veused9.2%,whichisbasedonaleveredbetaof1.148.Betaisameasureofastock'svolatility,comparedtothemarketasawhole.Wegetourbetafromtheindustryaveragebetaofgloballycomparablecompanies,withanimposedlimitbetween0.8and2.0,whichisareasonablerangeforastablebusiness.
SWOTAnalysisforAtourLifestyleHoldings
Strength
Weakness
Opportunity
Threat
NextSteps:
Althoughthevaluationofacompanyisimportant,itshouldn'tbetheonlymetricyoulookatwhenresearchingacompany.TheDCFmodelisnotaperfectstockvaluationtool.Preferablyyou'dapplydifferentcasesandassumptionsandseehowtheywouldimpactthecompany'svaluation.Ifacompanygrowsatadifferentrate,orifitscostofequityorriskfreeratechangessharply,theoutputcanlookverydifferent.ForAtourLifestyleHoldings,therearethreepertinentfactorsyoushouldfurtherresearch:
PS.TheSimplyWallStappconductsadiscountedcashflowvaluationforeverystockontheNASDAQGSeveryday.Ifyouwanttofindthecalculationforotherstocksjustsearchhere.
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ThisarticlebySimplyWallStisgeneralinnature.Weprovidecommentarybasedonhistoricaldataandanalystforecastsonlyusinganunbiasedmethodologyandourarticlesarenotintendedtobefinancialadvice.Itdoesnotconstitutearecommendationtobuyorsellanystock,anddoesnottakeaccountofyourobjectives,oryourfinancialsituation.Weaimtobringyoulong-termfocusedanalysisdrivenbyfundamentaldata.Notethatouranalysismaynotfactorinthelatestprice-sensitivecompanyannouncementsorqualitativematerial.SimplyWallSthasnopositioninanystocksmentioned.